The exploration and production of critical minerals will need to accelerate if countries are to meet their future net zero targets, according to the recently released Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 from the IEA.
The report, which explores critical questions around clean energy and technology supply chains, identifies copper as the leading critical mineral used in clean energy (accounting for 70% of total critical minerals consumption), whilst predicting that the largest gap between supply and demand by 2030 will be for lithium: a key element for decarbonisation due to its fundamental role in battery technology.
Going further, the IEA also provides analysis of both the manufacture and supply of clean energy technologies – solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, electrolysers for hydrogen and heat pumps – and explores how these are likely to develop as the clean energy transition evolves.
The expert writers predict that mass-manufactured clean energy technologies will be worth more than three times today’s level by 2030, if countries meet their publicly stated energy and climate pledges.
To meet increasing demand for critical minerals, the IEA identifies extensive exploration requirements to locate sufficient resources to meet those net zero targets.
More specifically, they highlight five critical minerals – lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and the rare earth, neodymium – based on their use in clean energy technologies, that face potential supply constraints and risks related to their geographical concentration. The production shortfall of lithium tops of the list since today’s production levels will only meet two-thirds of demand by 2030.
Whilst climate change is the primary driver of the energy transition, energy security further underscores the need for rapid decarbonisation. The war in Ukraine and the ongoing Covid pandemic have disrupted supply lines that were once assumed to be safe and secure.
These combined pressures will make the critical minerals market a much more competitive one, with the IEA projecting investment between US$360 – 450 billion through to 2030 in critical mining to meet demand, which will drive the need for acceleration and innovation in exploration activities to locate new resources.
Read the Full IEA Report: Energy Technology Perspectives 2023